tv Fast Money CNBC August 15, 2014 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
that's owls a selling point. what get messner vows is when the nonelite less special cars start getting categorized as collectibles. >> plus, have you ever seen "ferris bueller's day off"? >> by the way, i don't think it's that easy to break into the odometer and turn it back. >> "fast money" is coming up right now. we'll hand it right over to mandy injury in for melissa lee. >> thank you very much. thank you, kelly. indeed, "fast money" starts right now. we are live from the nasdaq market site in new york sometime square. i'm mandy sitting in for level level tonight. brian kelly and guy adami, good evening, everybody. let's get straight to the top story. stocks selling off earlier today on reports that the ukrainian artillery attacked a russian military vehicle after it crossed into ukrainian territory. russia's defense ministry is denying that attack. but the impact on stocks was quite real with the dow down nearly 140 points at the lows, and the s&p also down about 14
points. this is really interesting, and certainly it wasn't just stocks that was reacting. we also saw quite a lot of sensitivity in the ten-year yield, hitting the lowest in over a year. and everyone is trying to work out how much lower it can go. >> you know, getting to the stock market, i think what we saw today was not surprising for a very quiet friday in the summer, when you also see markets started to tick back in the afternoon. if you get down to the headlines on russia, i talked to a bunch of people in moscow after that. and to the extent that they are getting good information, a lot of people actually thought this is believe this or not a de-escalation aproportionate. it's about giving poroshenko some victories. sunday a meeting in berlin. i wouldn't want to be short into the weekend on this news, just to be clear. for all the people that were saying doom and gloom, i would not necessarily be shorting anything. i think you should be flat on that news. >> i think these type of headlines are almost impossible to trade, because we have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. so you need to be careful. but what you can do, when you look at this, when we talk about de-escalation, i don't think
that it will de-escalate. i think that you'll get -- we've seen this pattern since crimea. this is very similar to what happened in crimea. we had a sell-off on friday. we had a rally back in the afternoon and sunday night we had the futures down 10, 20 handles. so again, i think we're in that area. you know, i don't think we're headed into a complete explosion of it. but when they say de-escalating, that's the time to buy. and i bought gold today. this morning when it was down 20, and everybody was saying it's because of the de-escalation, you had to buy gold at that point in time. >> very skeptical of any consumers -- all along, haven't you, b.k.? >> yes. >> if anything, maybe you can use this as an a excuse, the excuse he is looking to move his troops. >> if you think about it, i told you a few months ago that all this would take place. not only what is going on in russia, but what is going on in the middle east. >> i know what you're doing right now. >> what is he doing? >> the name on the chart. it's a good game. >> but tim, i would ask you, where is gold going to be?
>> much, much higher, guys. >> much, much higher. >> well, we're going to talk about gold in just a second, because we have a 5,000 call out here on the table. >> i don't want to take credit for that call. i'm just saying -- >> yeah, press the pause button on that one for two seconds. guy? >> to the point, gold had every reason to rally and basically has not done it. in terms of the tlt, the instrument -- people -- i don't think people are buying it for the yield. they're buying it because the instrument has appreciated in value. the tlt is up 18% this year. that's not a bad return. i'm still in the camp that rates go lower. >> good for guy who has been pushing on the tlt and rates going lower. i would say two to three weeks ago and probably a couple of times since i said tbt. i think rates are going higher. having said that, that's the wrong call. and be clear on tbt and tlt. the three times etfs, trade them. if you think rates are going to go higher next year, if you hold it next year, it's going to have
serious capital erosion. i do think it's going higher. >> any of those two and three times, those are trades. >> exactly. >> trading. >> the calculation goes every day. i think the one thing that is very important to point out here, because of the vix, which is a measure, and i'm not saying this is a tradeable thing, it's more of a measuring stick for me. when i see the vix today get underneath 12, giving you an opportunity to own protection at these levels with the s&p, with all the things you pointed out, guy, and for all those reasons, we aren't seeing the normal reactions. but why not protect your portfolio? why wouldn't you do that? today we spiked toward 15. we closed underneath the 200 day, towards 13. plenty of opportunities throughout. you can buy stocks when you're getting hit if you tone protection at the lower levels. now the is the time. >> to add on to that, if you look what the federal reserve did in 2009, they withdrew volatility from the market. as we get to the end of qe, volatility is going to come back in the market. so regardless of what is going on geopoliticalcally, you have a great opportunity to buy volatility. >> okay. as tensions rise between ukraine
and russia, you might think the gold would pop amid this uncertainty. gold is down about a half percent over the course of the past week. what is the deal? let's bring in principle thomas vitiello. good to have you with us. i guess it got a little bit of a bid at 11:00 eastern. and then, you know, it really kind of went nowhere. what is going on? >> well, this morning it took a hit around 7:50. it was a huge order hit the market around 15,000 contract trading around 10 minutes. and that was it. the market got down to around 93. and then it hovered around there until the news came out. and it was lot of people who got short on that, and they got pushed out. that's really what this is. this market for the last two or three weeks is just market structure. who is short, who is long, and then the news comes out either bearish or bullish. if it's bullish news and people are short, they get squeezed out. people always attribute the news tommy the market rising. and it's really because everybody was short. if the market was long and that
bullish news came out, the market wouldn't move. this with open interest is extremely low right now. the volatile numbers in gold is muted. right now it's the front two month and that's about it. >> thomas, it's tim seymour. what is bullish event for gold then? as guy was talking to you before, you think we have a lot of things lined up here that would be very bullish. the only thing working against gold is there really is no inflation. tell me what you want to see to take gold higher. >> well, geopolitical, i've never been a fan of the geopolitical story in gold. it's always short-lived. i've been here a long time. we had 9/11. we've had some really terrible things happen in the past 20 years. and basically, gold will have a knee-jerk reaction and then it's a selling opportunity. if the real fundamentals aren't there, which is real interest rates, which is fear, but currency fear, system fear, banking fear. not -- the stock market can go down and so can gold. i seen it happen.
ai give liquidated their position. you can't always look at the stock market or things like there is a war. we've had many wars in the last 20 years, and gold reacts initially, shorts get pushed out. people jump in. johnny come lately. but it doesn't really sustain itself usually. >> indeed. thank you very much for your thoughts on that, thomas. but, you know, if it's not gold, where are we finding safety? it's kind of interesting. i mean, oil isn't acting how you would normally expect to it act, considering that russia is a major oil and gas producer. gold isn't acting how you would normally see it. so where do we find defensive plays? >> i tell you, let me jump. in when i think defensive over the past few years, people talk about the big stocks, but altria, people they the cigarette industry is going out of business. and we all know that it's contracting. but the good news is there is a lot of pricing power for these guys. the good news is these guys have proven they're a dividend play. so this is a 4% dividend. a 14 times multiple. this is a company that is invested in a lot of other business. they get a big equity kicker
from saab miller. >> what else? >> coca-cola because that acquisition today, or the partial acquisition 17% that they took in monster i think is huge. they needed to get some diversification. now they've got it. they've got themselves into the energy drink space in a big way. i think that's very helpful. also we talked about the other night. microsoft. i look at this name. look at the way it reacted today, throughout the day trading in positive territory. very strong the restructuring for a lot of different reasons. the yield on both the names, they're good spots to park your money. >> i actually think it's good. we're all talk about how gold is up 5% since june. and i think the best way to play it is gdx. because look at it this way. you get exposure to gold, plus i get a dividend, which i know guy doesn't like. >> you make an excellent point. even the precious metal itself is only up 7% this year, remember just on wednesday we're talking with mccune mining, big gold minor and they were saying the gdx. >> it's monster trade this year. >> trading about 30% so far this year. the gold mine is vastly
outperforming the precious metals itself. >> i think it's partly to do with you get that dividend. why not? it seems to be a no brain. >> probably six to eight years ago. look at lockheed martin. look at the last quarter they just reported. outstanding at 13 times four earnings. these stocks go up. they seem to be impervious to the tape. i think they are. i like lmt. >> okay. let's move on. we have a news alert on tesla. let's get straight to bertha coombs. >> they expanded the warranty on the model s drive unit to match that of the battery. that means it has an eight-year infinite mile warranty. the electric carmaker saying the change will have a modestly negative impact on earnings in the short-term. the stock not really moving a whole lot on that. but certainly reassuring to those who have a car. it's retroactive to all model ss by the way.
back to you. >> thank you very much. ever so slightly lower. tesla hit all-time highs this week. we were talking about this one on wednesday when it hit that all-time high. what is the trade on tesla? >> if you're willing to take on risk, tesla is a great trade, but it's a trade i would only do through options. i don't want to be locked into the stock and suddenly watch it go down $20 one day when there is all of the sudden another news alert out there. we can continue to see upside buying in there. but if you want more stability, you stay with ford. >> stay with ford if you want stability. okay. the iphone 6 is expected to be released in just a few weeks. we're going show you the new photos of it just being leaked. and tell you why dt advanced technology is spiking on that news. plus, investors are creeping back into high yield junk bonds. if you follow suit we have an epic street fight following your way. log on to cnbc.com/vote to tell us who you think is winning. yeah, you can take part in this as well. the live voting. make sure you join us. this billboard down? tae people find out state farm does car loans as well as they do insurance, our bank is through.
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high yield bond funds. so could an investor appetite be changing? it's time for the epic street fight. epic, boys, epic. tim, you're the bull. b.k., you are the bear. no surprise there's. and this is your time to get in on the action, guys. when i say that, i mean you, the viewer, the listener, anyone out there can log on to cnbc.com now and cast your vote for tim, the bull, or b.k., the bear. okay? let's open up the voting. you 90 seconds to make your case. >> can we get going? >> let's start! okay. you're in the bull ring, timmy. >> we started out the show talking a little bit about the yield and the 30-year bond and the 10-year bond and the yield complex globally. a the end of the day investors are looking for places to get yield. just because there was massive outflow peaks last week, we had record outflows from high yield last week. some that of is a function of a lot of issuers coming to market again there is a big new issuance calendar. a lot of people are looking to get out and get back in. the point i'm making is if you think rates globally continue to
stay low, this is a place you want to be. and don't think that people, and i mean some of the biggest institutions in the world don't continue to look to pick up yield anywhere they can. credit issues are what it all comes down to. and if you're telling me there is a huge credit problem globally, then get out of high yield. if you don't think so, this is where you want to stay. >> so i would agree with everything that tim said but then we would both be wrong. so i'm going to take the other side. >> okay. >> investing in bonds. a couple of things you have worry about. >> for a minute there i thought he was complimenting me. >> one is interest rate risk, the risk that rates go higher. number two is credit risk, the risk that these high yield, they're high yield for a reason, that they're going to be able to pay you back. if you are in high yield right now, you are not being compensated for either of those risks. we're at all-time lows. the yields have started to top out. the prices started to bottom out. prices started to top out. and as we go forward, i mean, let's just say the economy is fantastic. yields go higher. you get crushed in high yield bonds. >> you yourself were saying you
think the world is a dangerous place. >> i didn't buy gold because i think the world is a dangerous place. >> ding ding ding ding ding. >> again. >> i would agree with you but what we would wrong. >> timmy, it's over. >> oh, sorry. it's over. now it was really interesting watching the live voting there, guys. i don't know whether you noticed. at the beginning, b.k., the bear, you had over 60% of the vote. now it swung around. >> should have kept my mouth shut! >> stop right there. quit while you're ahead. timmy, the bull, you win with 56%. bear case, 44%. let's get the rest of the desk to weigh in here. what do you think, guy? what do you think? >> i'm on b.k.'s camp. he has been right. obviously it's has a bounce, so it's a little painful now. i'm in sort of the high yield might be dangerous territory here. this rally opportunity to sell. >> opportunity to set. >> and b.k. has also pointed out the idea you're not getting compensated enough for risk. so for that reason i lean towards b.k., although tim, you
made a great argument. >> everyone here on this desk has argued why the market continues to trade the way it does. therefore high yield will as well. >> but for the first time you're seeing outflows from the high yield market. disneyland is zero liquidity in that market. so you can have the potential for a disorderly unwinding of this. excuse me? >> what was that? what? who? what? >> okay, guys. that was great. epic street fight. let's move on. >> turn the machines back on! >> okay, let's move on to some unusual activity. pete, i believe you've been watching southwestern energy. >> right. and we've been talking about energy stocks for a very long time. obviously there was a bit of a pause for a while. marathon just the other day on wednesday, i think it was mycotalking some of the unusual energy there. southwest energy, extremely active. over 6,000 traded very early in the day. the stock was trading around 39. somebody is making a fairly large bet over the next couple of weeks we'll see the stock go higher. i agree with them. i think the energy stocks have little bit of a lift underneath them right now. >> with oil prices having done
what they have done, crude is down for the fourth straight week. do you think there are any other buying opportunities throughout. the. >> energy is one that really stands out. look at the domestics. you look at the nat gas, the oil names that name was much higher. it's been sold off pretty hard, oversold so i think there is an opportunity there. >> okey-doke. time for pops and drops, the big movers of the day. we have a drop about 6% downside. >> it's amazing. they beat on their earnings. they beat on their revenues. the stock was trading higher. and then as the market turned, this stock turned. i think it's an opportunity. i actually went in and bought it today sort of near the lows, around $52 a share. >> this is a mega pop. >> a monster pop. >> 30%. b.k.? >> if you don't know what is going on, you didn't watch the show last night because this happened during the show last night. coca-cola bought a percentage of monster beverage, although up 30%. i find it very difficult to buy. i would be taking my profit. >> okey-dokes. dropping, jcpenney down by about 2%. interesting story, tim?
>> we talked about it last night as well. this is one of the few retail names actually working, third consecutive beat by these guys. stabilization for sure. same story sells actually beat the street. this is a stock i think you can continue to ride. it's not a runaway. >> why was it down when the news was good? >> ultimately this is a stock that i think you have a lot of people who bet on the easy killing here. the gains that came out of the restructuring and the stabilization. thing is a stock that is showing the fall has drivers. this is all working. i think you can play it. >> okay. it's been a tough retail earning season so far. we have a pop, gilead popping 3%, guys. >> a name we've been talking about for quite some time. we said $100. close today, close enough for government workers. $125 price target on it. great story. i think it continues to go higher. we have a news alert. let's get back to bertha coombs. what you watching? >> mandy, the time of the year when funds disclose their holdings. and we have a 13-s filing from wintergreen. they filed it yesterday. today dave winters, the ceo
issued a statement this afternoon saying as a long-term shareholder of berkshire, mr. buffett's words and action, more aptly inaction regarding koch's inequity plan did not sit well with us. as a result, wintergreen is liquidating its position in berkshire. it's held 150 million shares since early 2006. and they say it has not -- no longer met their set of principles, which has to do with a business with compelling valuation. it also there are three-pronged investment criteria, management working on behalf of all shareholders. 10 basically, taking a stab there. they've had a nice return on their investment, though, with shares yesterday topping $200,000. back to you. >> that's right. that was quite the news. thank you very much for that bertha coombs, wintergreen liquidating its position in berkshire. any comment here? >> to me it doesn't really make sense. ultimately, what berkshire did in this name is what they look for in a lot of brands. and in coke, they found a great
who is a great conservative company who has found a way to grow despite a lot of criticism. what is the issue? coming up next, we're going go behind the scenes with the just released images of the apple iphone 6. does it meet up to all the hype? the pics yave to see next. >> naughty. >> naughty. entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation. it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. plus the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami. i am "fast money." >> i am pete najarian. i am "fast money." >> are you "fast money"? go to the nbcuniversal store and order your "fast money" t. run with the big dogs.
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and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now -- and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. leaked photos of the iphone 6 surfacing today. and kicking off our top trades tonight. the phone was reportedly taken from its factory in china. and the phone is confirmed previous reports of a larger screen, rounder edges, and the fingerprint scanner from the latest version of the iphone.
it also reportedly includes the sapphire screen made by gt advanced technology, pete. what is the train on the back of this. >> everybody seems to be extremely excited about this. they should be. there is three units, the c, the 6 and the 5 1/2 screen. there is a lot of excitement out there. i can tell you even the options world was starting to show some of that today. september, they were buying the 97 101 spread call. so people think this stock is ready to break through $100 a share. we'll see if that happens. but obviously they've got some time. they got through september. once the release, what everybody figures, somewhere around the early part of september. >> but there has been a lot of buildup on this. >> yes. >> could this be the case of buy the rumor and sell the fact? >> i'm long the calls. i'm long the stock. >> yes, that's exactly what i think. >> we're on opposite sides. and that's why i'm short. just for everybody out there, my stop is 101 and it's not 100% of my portfolio. i'm only risking probably 1% of my total portfolio on this trade. so if you're on twitter and asking me every day, are you still short? yes. >> it sounds like someone is a
little -- >> i'm getting 900, are you still short? you're losing your shirt. it's called risk management. >> well, you lost your socks. the shirt is next. come on. okay. it's time for the final trade. wow. we've got lots of time. i just looked at the time. make these final trades big, guys. let's go around the horn. timmy, what are you look at? >> i'm selling oracle not because it's been a terrible trade, but there is opportunity cost of capital. when they had the numbers and got sold down, i went and bought it the next day. the stock is flat. it does pay a decent dividend, but i can put my money elsewhere and feel happy about it. >> pete? >> we talked about safety trades. i'm going back with microsoft. i've been long a couple years. i still think it goes to the upside, about $50 a share. >> and b.k.? >> i bought the grains today. jjg. part of what is going on in russia is the food security issue. we've had a bumper crop here. it's a good time to buy, and you do not trust mr. putin? >> i do not. >> the grain trade on the back of that. >> before i get -- doing this
close to eight years now. we have a lot of great pages come through. probably close to 50 over the years. one of the best. last day today. amanda garcia, ladies and gentlemen. >>. [ applause ] >> yeah, baby! >> on her way to the "today" show. so good luck, amanda. >> thank you, amanda. >> haines celestial. with all a the chitter chatter in that space, i think it looks pretty interesting. >> thank you very much. okay. well, that does it for us here on "fast money." "options action" is coming up next. make sure you stick around before you head off to the weekend. thanks, boys. >> nice. ...for the year. hi. sorry.
♪ this is "options action." tonight, energy stocks have gone from hot to not. >> shut up. >> but according to the chance, they could actually be setting up for a huge run higher. we've got a special report. plus -- >> zoom zoom. >> that's just what tesla did this week. the shares wept to an all-time high. but we'll tell you why some traders say it is time to hit the brakes. and will bill cosby save netflix? shares have been on the pause button this year. but a new strategy could take the giant into fast forward. we'll tell you how to play it. the action begins right now.